Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Obama's Closing Infomercial and FDR's

Obama's cross-network TV infomercial tomorrow night is probably the single most expensive political ad buy in history: Thirty minutes on CBS, NBC, Fox, three cable news nets, (but not ABC).

The precedent for this is older than the TV era. On election eve, 1944, the Democrats bought an hour of time on all four national radio networks to drum up votes for Roosevelt in his campaign against New York governor Thomas E. Dewey.

SNL previewed Obama's closer as a variety show.



I have no idea if that's what Obama's team has planned. But an all-star variety show is just what FDR's team delivered.

In 1944, the Democrats handed the assignment for developing the format and script for their get-out-the-vote broadcast to Norman Corwin, the most imaginative and poetic writer of the radio era, (still active today at 98). Erik Barnouw wrote that based on the President's approval of a two-page outline, Corwin was given a free hand to develop the show.

What he delivered combines testimonials from citizens across the country and the political spectrum, combined with musical numbers written for the show by Earl Robinson ("Joe Hill," "The House I Live In," "Ballad for Americans") and lyrcist E. Y. "Yip" Harburg ("April in Paris," "Only a Paper Moon"). Singers on the show included two stars who had introduced Harburg classics in their 1939 films, Judy Garland ("Over the Rainbow" in Wizard of Oz) and Groucho Marx ("Lydia the Tatooed Lady" in At the Circus).

You can hear the FDR infomerical online at Vintage Radio Place. Click the Nov 5 show. Then jump ahead to the second hour.

What struck me on hearing the show was how many of the themes and issues raised in 1944 have close parallels to today's campaign.

Vote Suppression: Roosevelt charged that "Millions of soldiers and sailors and merchant seamen have been handicapped or prevented from voting by those politicians and those candidates who think that they stand to lose by such votes."

Campaign Finance: 1944 was the year of the very first PAC. It was set up by the CIO to allow individuals to make small contributions to counter large Republican donations, such as the $13 million given by Sun Oil's Joseph N. Pew Jr. ($13 million in 1944 is equivalent to $161 million today). Naturally, the Republicans denounced it.

Investment in Energy A Tennessee farmer testifies to the benefits of the TVA

The Republican Brand: Then as now, the Republican brand was in tatters. Just as Obama ties McCain to Bush (Iraq, Katrina, Financial Meltdown), the Roosevelt broadcast tied Dewey to Hoover and Harding (Depression, Prohibition, Tea Pot Dome). James Cagney, Groucho Marx, and Keenan Wynn drive the point home in a medly that included"In the Good Ol' Hoover Time" and
East side, west side
All around the town
Banks were bustin' right in your face
Stocks were tumblin down
"Prosperity 'round the corner"
Bread lines 'round the block
Don't let Dewey bring Hoover
To the Sidewalks of New York.
Socialism: Groucho reminded the audience that the red communism scare had been used again and again with "distinguished lack of success." and went on to sing, "The Old Red Scare it ain't what it used to be."

Republican support: Just as the McCain campaign prodded a stream of conservative and Republican voters to announce for Obama, the FDR broadcast featured a series of Republicans who testified that they were voting for Roosevelt. The highlight was 94-year-old Julius Oscar, who, as a child, had shaken Lincoln's hand.

Celebrity Endorsements: FDR's backers appearing on the show included a very impressive cast. (Ronald Reagan was not there, but Jane Wyman was.)
From Hollywood:
Joan Bennett
Mr. and Mrs. Irving Berlin
Humphrey Bogart
Virginia Bruce
Jimmy Cagney
Harry Carey
Claudette Colbert
Joseph Caution
Linda Darnell
John Garfield
Judy Garland
James Gleason
Paulette Goddard
Susan Hayward
Rita Hayworth
Walter Huston
Rex Ingram
George Jessel
Danny Kaye
Gene Kelly
Evelyn Keyes
Groucho Marx
Paul Muni
George Raft
Edward G. Robinson
Gale Sondergaard
Lana Turner
Richard Whorf
Monty Woolley
Jane Wyman
Keenan Wynn
plus the youngest and oldest voters
19-year-old Betty Hall and 94-year-old Julius Oscar.

From New York:
Constance Bennett
Gertrude Berg
Milton Berle
Charles Boyer
Marc Connelly
Bennett Cerf
John Dewey
Eddie Dowling
Olin Downes
Edna Ferber
John Gunther
Fannie Hurst
the Ink Spots
Dorothy Maynor
Vilhjalmur Stefansson
Alonzo Myers
Dorothy Parker
Waldo Pierce
Elmer Rice
Barney Ross
Vincent Sheean
Frank Sinatra
Paul Strand
Franchot Tone
Louis Untermeyer
Benay Venuta
Fay Wray.

From Hyde Park:
President Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
Roosevelt's speech at the close of the broadcast was surpringly unpolitical. He didn't mention his opponent. He didn't ask for votes. He simply asked the American people to be thoughful, look forward to the peace, and create a world worthy of the sacrifice of our fighters. He ended with a prayer.

The chairman of the DNC, Paul Porter, told Corwin that he thought the broadcast produced an additional million votes.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Friday, October 24, 2008

Ron the Director, Meet Your Fans

See more Ron Howard videos at Funny or Die

Joe the Plumber, Meet Amy the Makeup Artist

I have no special insight here. Just a burning need to unload to post some snark on the news that Amy Strozzi, Gov. Palin's makeup artist, drew top dollar in the entire McCain campaign staff for drawing on the face that launched a thousand quips. I don't suppose Sen. McCain will be introducing her on the Joe the Plumber tour.

Mickeleh's Take: Amy Strozzi's other big credit is "So You Think You Can Dance." Maybe she can offer some terpsichorean tips to the McCain surrogates making the rounds of cable news today. They're going to be doing some mighty fancy tap dancing.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Palin's Wardrobe: Stop Whining. Those Outfits Are Fabulous


Politico broke the story. "RNC shells out $150K for Palin fashion." And everyone piled on. Ambinder (Atlantic) said "Republicans Disgusted." Koppelman (Salon) snarked "How real Americans dress." Tayor Marsh reminds us that Cindy McCain spent twice that for a single outfit. dday called her a "Welfare Queen." Josh_Painter (Redstate) brushes it off as a bargain—the money didn't just buy outfits for the Gov, but for her whole family. Pandagon calculates that John Edwards could have had a $400 haircut every week for 7.2 years. L.A. Times calls it a "$150,000 Wardrobe Malfunction" and a "one-woman economic stimulus plan."

I say, knock it off. Back in the fifties, Nixon kept his place on the ticket by telling the TV audience that his wife, "doesn't have a mink coat. But she does have a respectable Republican cloth coat, and I always tell her she'd look good in anything."

But TV was black and white back then. And generally fuzzy. Today, we're in a world of color and HD. I say, let Palin dress for success.

Here's the most delicious irony of it all. The official McCain response to the flap:
With all of the important issues facing the country right now, it's remarkable that we're spending time talking about pantsuits and blouses. It was always the intent that the clothing go to a charitable purpose after the campaign."
—Tracey Schmitt, McCain spokesperson.
Aren't these the folks who said “If we keep talking about the economic crisis, we’re going to lose”? Now that they want to talk about the economy, they're stuck with the visual dissonance of a hockey mom in couturier fashion. Oops.

Mickeleh's Take: Back in burlesque, they used the phrase "talking woman" to mean a female who could actually deliver lines in a sketch. Talking women were rare in the genre. Most women in burlesque were hired strictly for their looks. Palin may have started out at the Republican Convention with great reviews as a talking woman, but lately the more she says, the less voters think of her. Yesterday's polls say she's an even bigger drag on McCain than Bush. So Palin's a washout as a talking woman. Still, the outfits are fabulous. She wears them well. Don't begrudge.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Robocalls: Shine a Light and Make the Cockroaches Scurry

Have you ever before seen a campaign rebroadcast their opponent's slimiest ads? Obama has put the McCain Robocalls on YouTube for all to see.



Time was that politics was like the world of Fritz Lang's Metropolis. A visible world of daylight, and a dark subterranean shadow world. The worst of the smears through push polls, phone calls, flyers and mailers thrived in the underground campaigns. No more.

Mickeleh's Take: The primary campaign was a vaccine. We all got the killed virus months ago. We have anti-bodies now.

The Musical Lilt of Sarah Palin's Speech

Woid sent this to me. He says it's sprechtstimme. I say it's bold and refreshing and devilishly funny.



Mickeleh's Take: There are so many things this talented woman could do. She'll bounce back.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

McCain Defends His Fans. Let's Meet a Few

McCain said this last night at the debate:
"I'm not going to stand for people saying that the people that come to my rallies are anything but the most dedicated, patriotic men and women that are in this nation and they're great citizens."
Let's meet some of these great citizens:



Senator, do you want to revise your remarks? Or stand by them.

Mickeleh's Take: I cheated. Those folks aren't actually going to a McCain rally. They're going to a Palin rally. Whole different animal.

Debate Insta-shirt

Looks like John McCain has a new running mate. And the merchandize is ready-to-wear already. Woid is the designer. You have a choice of several shirt styles and a mug. Celebrate the world's second most famous plumber (Nixon's gang of burglars notwithstanding).

(Note: at the presidential debate last night, John McCain made innumberable references to a citizen that had a conversation with Barack Obama about taxes. McCain called him "Joe, the plumber." Today we've learned a lot about Joe: He's not a licensed plumber. While he's concerned about Obama's tax plans, he owes back taxes. He thinks Social Security is a joke.


Josephine The Plumber,
Even More Famous than Joe

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Help to Filibuster-proof the Senate

Goal Thermometer
A sixty-seat, fillibuster-proof majority within reach of the Democrats. Can you give $6 for 60 votes?

As of October 15th, Democratic challengers lead in enough states to yield a 59-seat Democratic caucus. But that includes Joe Lieberman (I-CT).

Can we get to 60? Can we do it without Lieberman?

There are six states where polls put the candidates within 5 points of each other. Democrats are barely ahead in three (AK, MN, NC). Republicans are barely ahead in three (KY, MS, GA).

If we hold the three Democratic leads, that brings us up to 59. If we can turn one of the Republican leads, we make 60. If we turn two, we can have sixty without Lieberman.

Because of the closeness of these races, these are the states where additional contributions can have the greatest impact in reaching a filibuster-proof majority.

I've set up a page on ActBlue to make it easy to contribute to these six tight Senate races.

If you give each of these candidates $6, that's a total donation of $36. If that's too much, then pick your favorites from the list and give $6 to as many as you can.

Mickeleh's Take: I set up the page with a very modest goal of raising $360. We blew past that in just a few hours, so I've doubled the goal.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Hey, John, You Earned Yourself a "Get Out of Jail Free" Card. But You're Still on Parole

John, my fellow prisoner, you did us proud last night, telling your fightened, hateful fan-base that Obama is not Arab (though you might have mentioned that it's okay to be Arab and it's even okay to be Arab-American). You told them that Obama's a decent family man and you said the members of your posse don't have to fear him as president. For that, I hand you this "Get Out of Jail Free" card.

But, my friend, you're still on parole. And we can haul your ass back into Demogogue Jail at any moment. What you did was good as far as it goes. But now you have to show us far it can go. Does it undo your running-mate's and your advertising's game of guilt by word association (terrorists-pallin' around-shady)?

You answered "Who is the real Barack Obama?" Twice. But many times did you ask it? Has your campaign ceased asking it? Look how nicely your new words fit your old questions:

John, you have, as the Prophet Hosea put it, sown the wind. And now you're reaping the whirlwind. Your campaign has attracted a core supporter base that is among the most fearful, ill-informed, hateful, and irrational in the country. You, Palin and your surrogates have expressed, magnified, and unleashed their hatreds. The vast subterranean river of slander carried out of public view by emails is now spewing forth in your rallies with calls for violence against Barack Obama. Are you going to take responsibility for cleaning up that sewage? When?

You've made a meme of "I know how to do it." Well let's see if you know how to do this: Can you stuff that foul genie back into the bottle?.

You're auditioning for leader. Let's see if you can lead your rabble back to sanity. Let's see if you can lead the Atwater-inspired, Rove-trained crew that you hired on a path back to rational discourse? Can you lead your Vice Presidential choice away from her winky-poo demagoguery? Can you lead your estranged and bullying base back into the American family?

We're watching.

Mickeleh's Take: John, I'm so proud of my country because it isn't falling for the same old Nixon-spawned politics of division that your team attempted. They don't believe, don't even have much interest in the scurrilous messages you approved. And have you noticed the growing chorus of decent conservatives and Republicans who have spoken out agains your wretched, lying, dangerous tactics? I don't expect you to listen to me. But how about listening to them? I don't think you can save your campaign any more, but there's a chance might be able to save some shred of your reputation. Get out of jail, my fellow prisoner. Get off parole. Be a mensch.

Lee Stranahan's 30 Days, 30 Reasons

Lee Stranahan counts us down to election day with a project to release a video a day telling us why he's voting for Obama. Here's the series so far.



Mikeleh's Take: So far, so good. Worth watching. Subscribe to Lee's YouTube Channel to get the rest of the series. Or Come back here, I'll be adding them as he releases them.

Feelin' The Love?

Guess Who's the Real Crypto Muslim in This Race

Hat tip to John Green, (author, vlogbrother, nerdfighter, and anagrammarian) for getting me thinking about vice presidential anagrams this morning.

I soon discovered that Sarah Palin anagrams to "Sharia plan." So, clearly, she's the one who plans to institute Muslim law in the United States.

By the way, John's favored anagrams for the candidates:

I need job (Joe Biden)
Las Piranha (Sarah Palin)

Mickeleh's Take: Other anagrams for Sarah Palin include:
a sharp nail
a plain rash
anal parish
has anal rip
(but you didn't hear them from me.)

Two apt anagrams for Joe Biden:
jibe node
jibe done.

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Divine Intervention Against Free Speech?

At the Palin rally in Greenville, N.C., the Rev. Walter Leake prayed this prayer invoking both Scripture and the X-Files:
Father, you said the truth will set us free. We know the truth is out there, and the truth is that the other side is lying, ubelievably lying... God, we ask you to close their mouths."

After which, Palin proceded to tell two oft-debunked lies that stand at the heart of her stump speech.

Mickeleh's Take: "God bless America," I'm used to. "God, tell Obama to STFU" is new territory.

Quick, Everyone Send John McCain a Cake With a File Baked Into It.

I don't know exactly why John McCain addressed us all as, "My fellow prisoners." It may have been a vibe he picked up from Warden Baracuda standing behind him. He may have been watching too many Naomi Wolff videos. He may just be feeling trapped in a role which has forced him put his honor into dry dock for the duration. Maybe he was reading the biography of Father Damien among the lepers on Molokai. But whatever it is, he said it.

When you watch the video, keep your eye on Palin. She's looking at John until he has his brain-fart, then... well, see for yourself.
Mickeleh's Take: Let's all send him a cake with a file baked in. If that won't get by the Secret Service, then let's all send him a harmonica.

The Rabid Base Gets Real Foamy

Earlier, I noted that John McCain declined to bring the mud last night. I thought that was in recognition that the mud is only working for his rabid base and not at all for independents and undecideds.

Turns out the rabid base was none-too-happy about that. Andy McCarthy in NRO's "The Corner," got real foamy in the mouth about it. Called it a disaster and said McCain failed because he didn't portray Obama as a radical leftist. He blamed the failure on McCain's not being a true-believer in conservative doctrine.
Memo to McCain Campaign: Someone is either a terrorist sympathizer or he isn't; someone is either disqualified as a terrorist sympathizer or he's qualified for public office. You helped portray Obama as a clealy qualified presidential candidate who would fight terrorists.

[snip]

With due respect, I think tonight was a disaster for our side. I'm dumbfounded that no one else seems to think so.
The debates have been a fine way for us all to answer Groucho's question: "Who are you gonna believe, me or your own eyes?" McCarthy is just furious that the country is coming around to believe our own eyes rather than the dangerous radical they conjure and fulminate against.

Mickeleh's Take
: Memo to McCain Campaign; cc: Andy McCarthy. You can tell me: Do any of you actually believe the crap you are trying to pin on Obama? Or is it—as it looks from the outside—pure, cynical demogoguery? I'm getting the impression that you are derranged enough to swallow your own snake oil.

"That One" "That Girl" & "This Boy"

"That One" is the immortal line from this debate. File it with "There you go again," and "Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy."

In celebration, please enjoy the following vids.

That One (McCain)


That Girl (Marlo Thomas)


This Boy (Beatles)

Mickeleh's Take: At least McCain didn't munge all three of these and call Obama "That boy."

Who Won The Debate? Irrelevant.

Before last night's presidential debate, Obama had a clear lead in both national polls, and state-by-state electoral votes.

In order to change that, McCain would have had to deliver a breakthrough. He didn't. If you favored him, he did well enough for you to tout his victory. But if you didn't, nothing he said or did would have flipped you into his column. Best line of all is from Melissa McEwan:
McCain needed to win; he did not. He got owned. Say goodnight, Johnny. It's President That One to you.
I'll tell you (though you know I'm biased going in) that Obama did better on substance, style, energy, focus, and looking, as Buffy once said, "very commandery." He did himself some good in bringing home some undecideds.

I'll tell you that McCain started strong, but tired out through the debate, puttered aimlessly across the stage, looked grumpy and uncomfortable when Obama spoke, came to life briefly when he gave a navy guy a back pat and a handshake.

I'll tell you that the CNN audience dial-a-smile didn't seem very interested in what McCain had to say.

I don't have to tell you, because you probably read it elsewhere that the insta-polls gave it decisively to Obama.

I won't miss Tom ("Is Russia evil?") Brokaw.

Mickeleh's Take: If you want Obama in the White House, don't let up. We still have four long weeks to go. But smile while you work.

Second Debate: Who is the Real John McCain?

The most striking thing about last night's presidential debate is what we didn't hear. McCain didn't bring up Ayres, Rezko, or Rev. Wright. He didn't tell us that Sen. Obama accuses the U.S. of doing nothing in Afghanistan but bombing innocents. He didn't accuse Obama of wanting to raise taxes on people making $42,000. He didn't say that Obama just showed up "out of nowhere."

The Sen. McCain who debated last night bore no resemblance to the Sen. McCain whose campaign has been throwing nothing but mud and asking, "Who's the real Barack Obama?" The John McCain who came to at Belmont University in Nashville, Tenn comes from an alternate universe.

Except for an eruption of disdain that burst out in when he called his opponent, "that one," this John McCain pretty much stuck to issues while he puttered around the stage. He threw only the mildest of shopworn zingers ("nailing jello to a wall") and a short list of distortions, including the canard that Obama voted 94 times for tax increases. (Using the same dubious methodology that gets Obama to 94, McCain voted 105 times for tax increases since 2005 and nearly 500 times in his Senate career.)

It was a tacit admission that the core of his campaign is not working for anyone but the rabid base. It's a flop with undecideds and an energizer for Democrats. If you watched the CNN dial-o-rama to see how their panel of viewers rated the debate minute-by-minute you could see that anytime McCain went negative, the response flat-lined.

Mickeleh's Take: Who is the real John McCain? The fellow who showed up last night to debate, or the one that approves a steady stream of deceptive smear ads and whose running mate demagogues Obama as a pal of terrorists?

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Short Takes

Time for Biden to get up and remind a rally that John McCain is pallin' around with Phil Gramm, an economic terrorist who targets his own country.


Marlon Brando in the Story of John McCain
(Upright Citizens Brigade)

BarbinMD: "At what point do we call the tactics of John McCain and Sarah Palin for what they are? Hate mongering"

Howie Klein: "Unless 'maverick' means a crook or a tired old wreck of a man, McCain is no maverick."

16-yr old girl: "Mom, anyone who has ever seen even one Disney movie can tell that Sarah Palin is the bad guy in this story."

One more right wing lie to set straight: The Palin Rape Kit story has not been debunked.

I used to think this Ira Gershwin lyric was a quaint reminder of a time long gone:
Refrain from "Who Cares?"

Let it rain and thunder,
Let a million firms go under.
I am not concerned with
Stocks and bonds that I've been burned with!
The lyric also includes this couplet that I've enjoyed all my life (because it mentions the town where I grew up). But I've never caught its full impact till now:
Who cares what banks fail in Yonkers
As long as you've got a kiss that conquers.
Here's how to answer someone who tells you they won't vote for Obama because he's a Muslim.

Mickeleh's Take: Here's the upside of the McCain Palin Slime Talk Express: It exposes them as having zero honor. It wouldn't be happening if they didn't know why the rest of us know: they're losing.

Monday, October 06, 2008

Thirty Days, Thirty Reasons to Vote Obama



Lee Stranahan kicks off a month-ong series of videos in support of Barack Obama. First installment: health care.

Mickeleh's Take: Obama wants to end the insurance companies's ability to reject people who have pre-existing conditions. The best way to do that is to reject McCain-Palin on the basis of their pre-existing condition: they're Republicans.

Bruce: Why he Supports Obama



Mickeleh's Take: I've heard many speeches in support of Obama. This is a good as they come. (He sings, too.)

Sunday, October 05, 2008

McCain and Palin: Double Standard?


L. John McCain, speaking in Indepedence, MO, Oct. 1
R. Sarah Palin, at the V.P. debate in St. Louis, Missouri, Oct. 3.

Mickeleh's Take: The eyes have it. When McCain does it, they call it a twitch. When Palin does it, they say it's a wink. Somehow that just doesn't seem fair to me.

Friday, October 03, 2008

VP Debate: What did Palin Actually Say?

The lasting impressions of the debate come from the visuals, the demeanor, the smiles, the glares, the poses. We all know that. But before it all fades away, it's worth taking note of what Gov. Palin actually said last night.

Well, for one, Palin said nookyular. There's one culture war I'm happy to sign up for: the Nuclears against the Nookyulars. If you can't pronounce nuclear, you just don't get to be Vice President. Stop trying to rhyme Nookyular with arugula. We've had eight years of nookyular. That's enough.

And then she said this:
"I'm thankful the Constitution would allow a bit more authority given to the vice president if that vice president so chose to exert it in working with the Senate and making sure that we are supportive of the president's policies and making sure too that our president understands what our strengths are. "
WTF? Do we know which Constitution she's referring to? Do we know what her intentions are? And if I may be so bold as to ask, does she?

There was a brief relapse into her Couric-era syntax of loosely connected phrases (includin' some more o' that "head-rearin" she's so fond o' warnin' us about—only this time it wasn't Putin doin' it. It was pesky mortgage lenders)"
...there have been so many changes in the conditions of our economy in just even these past weeks that there has been more and more revelation made aware now to Americans about the corruption and the greed on Wall Street.
We need to look back, even two years ago, and we need to be appreciative of John McCain's call for reform with Fannie Mae, with Freddie Mac, with the mortgage-lenders, too, who were starting to really kind of rear that head of abuse.... It is a crisis. It's a toxic mess, really, on Main Street that's affecting Wall Street.
Throughout the debate she made a string of assertions that ranged from dubious to infuriatingly false:
  • that John McCain is "one representing reform" in our financial markets
  • that he's the one who brought the folks in Congress together
  • that he suspended his campaign
  • that he put politics aside
  • that he really meant "the American workforce" when he called the fundamentals of our economy strong
  • that Obama supported raising taxes for families making only $42,000
  • that John McCain is "known for" pushing for even harder and tougher regulations
  • that John McCain's health care proposal is a good deal for folks.
  • that Barack Obama "even opposed funding our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan"
  • that our current troop deployment (152,000) is down to pre-surge levels (132,000)
  • that Obama's plan for for troop withdrawal is white flag of surrender in Iraq"
  • that Obama refused to acknowledge the surge is working
  • that "victory is within sight" in Iraq
  • that Iraq is the central front in the war on terror
  • that Obama would meet with enemies "without diplomatic efforts being undertaken first"
  • that John McCain knows how to win a war
On that last point, I need to ask, what is the evidence that John McCain knows how to win a war? Did he ever win one? Given his academic record (finishing 894th out of 899 students in his class at Annapolis), it surely wasn't book-learning.

Palin declared that she wasn't about to answer any questions that didn't please her, and proceeded instead to deliver a rote recitation of the misleading and discredited talking points that the McCain camp has been peddling all summer. That's treating her audience with the same dirisive contempt that McCain showed to Obama last week.

It wasn't so much a debate as an interrupted monolog. Eugene Robinson put it this way: "the pattern, so far, has been one of Biden presenting facts and Palin countering with… saying stuff."

The New York Times summed up the debate this:
In the end, the debate did not change the essential truth of Ms. Palin’s candidacy: Mr. McCain made a wildly irresponsible choice that shattered the image he created for himself as the honest, seasoned, experienced man of principle and judgment. It was either an act of incredible cynicism or appallingly bad judgment.
Mickeleh's Take: I said yesterday that even a perfect storm of Palin success, Biden failure, and Ifill bias wouldn't change the dynamics of the race. In reality there wasn't a storm of any magnitude whatever. Palin had, at best, a mild recovery. Biden's performance carried the day with independent voters in both the CBS and CNN surveys, and Ifill lived up to her well-earned reputation as a solid pro. On balance, the Dems are now two for two in debates. So the race goes on.

VP Debate: Talk About Your Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations

If you are a Republican you're ecstatic that your candidate actually can talk. You're proud she can duck questions and deride "the filter." You think she was pretty slick to co-opt Obama's change message and slap it onto McCain. And you marveled at her attempt to ward off any examination of your sorry record with a leaden rewrite of a Reagan classic: "Say it ain't so, Joe, there you go again pointin' backwards again." You loved how perky she was, with the beaming smile, the winks, the head tilt and the occasional puzzled nose-scrunching.

If you were grading her on a curve that also includes a tennis ball, an avocado, and that lady who showed up for the Couric interview, you'd have to say she aced it. OK, base, consider yourselves re-energized.

Mickeleh's Take: As for the rest of us, we're still scared shitless about what the Republicans have done to our economy, our national honor, our prestige in the world, and our constitution. We didn't find any substantive answers in Palin's presentation. Instead we found a rote recitation of discredited Republican talking points. We're ready to move on.

Thursday, October 02, 2008

The VP Debate. Will it Even Matter?



The most likely outcome of tonight's debate between Gov. Palin and Sen. Biden is this: we get to see Tina Fey again this weekend. 

But will the debate have any impact at all on the race to the White House? Probably not.

People vote the top of the ticket, not the bottom. And at the top of the ticket, the Obama momentum is growing. A CBS-New York Times poll finds Obama's favorable rating at 48%—the highest its been in this poll. By contrast, McCain's mavericky teflon has worn perilously thin; his unfavorable rating now reaching 42%—the highest in the poll's history.

Following a tiny bounce after the Republican Convention, Sen. McCain's national polling has been trending down, while Sen. Obama's is trending up. (shown pollster.com's trend chart of last month's composite poll of polls).

Even more dramatic is the recent movement in electoral votes. In state polling since the Wall St. meltdown and the first presidential debate, Obama seems headed for a solid win in electoral votes. CNN - Time - Opinion Research polling shows Obama ahead among likely voters in Florida (+4), Minnesota (+11), Misouri (+1), Nevada (+4), and Virginia (+9). Obama's lead among registered voters is even wider. (Given all the evidence we've seen of expanded voter interest and participation, the likely-voter forumula probably understates Obama's margin) NBC's Chuck Todd, this morning, called it a "tipping point."

It's Character, not Issues.

The McCain strategy has always been to make the campaign about driving up Obama's negatives to make him appear too risky. Celebrity. Speechmaker. Unready. Unpatriotic. (The underground campaign pushes even further: crypto-Muslim, anti-American, anti-Israel, socialist—a guy whose secret agenda is set by some shady, dangerous friends and influences. Not to mention his wacky peacher—and mention him as often as possible.)

But the last two weeks have reduced that campaign to a Groucho line: "who are you gonna believe—me or your own eyes?"

Our own eyes have given us a close look at "no drama Obama," responding to crisis with measured strength, steady communication, and deft humor. The same crisis showed us a clear view of McCain lurching from one position to another, one stunt to another, one outburst to another.

What's the Best She Can Do?

Against all this, what's the very best outcome Sarah Palin can deliver to her ticket? The bloom is definitely off the rose. Gov. Palin has quickly moved from an argument for McCain's strategic genius, to another example of his impulsively dangerous decision-making. She's in a very deep hole right now. Clearly unprepared for national office. Uninterested in national issues. Unable to name a newspaper. Unaware that supporting a constitutional right of privacy undermines the anti-Roe v. Wade position.



Some pundits are telling us is that the bar is now so low for Palin, that a charm offensive, a few canned zingers, plus some folksy soccer-mommery will make her a winner. Nonsense. She can't charm her way out of the devastating self-portrait she painted under the gentle prodding of Katie Couric. No way. Laughing stock today. Laughing stock tonight. Laughing stock tomorrow.

Some pundits are telling us that verbose and gaffe-prone Biden will say something dumb and talk too much. Who cares? He's immune. That's who he is. That's who he was. That's who he will be. Everyone already knows that. But he's also solid, informed, and active in both international and domestic issues and in tune with the Chris Matthews "regular American" voter. That won't change either.

Mickeleh's Take: Let say there's a perfect storm tonight. They let Palin be Palin and she's the best Palin she can possibly be. Joe Biden is at his worst. And Gwen Ifill is discredited as pro-Obama. Does anyone expect significant votes to shift toward the erratic, impulsive, resentful, disdainful, and less-than-honest McCain-Palin ticket? I don't. All their base is belong to them. The rest of us are voting for change.