The Rabid Base Gets Real Foamy

Earlier, I noted that John McCain declined to bring the mud last night. I thought that was in recognition that the mud is only working for his rabid base and not at all for independents and undecideds.

Turns out the rabid base was none-too-happy about that. Andy McCarthy in NRO's "The Corner," got real foamy in the mouth about it. Called it a disaster and said McCain failed because he didn't portray Obama as a radical leftist. He blamed the failure on McCain's not being a true-believer in conservative doctrine.

Memo to McCain Campaign: Someone is either a terrorist sympathizer or he isn't; someone is either disqualified as a terrorist sympathizer or he's qualified for public office. You helped portray Obama as a clealy qualified presidential candidate who would fight terrorists.

[snip]

With due respect, I think tonight was a disaster for our side. I'm dumbfounded that no one else seems to think so.

The debates have been a fine way for us all to answer Groucho's question: "Who are you gonna believe, me or your own eyes?" McCarthy is just furious that the country is coming around to believe our own eyes rather than the dangerous radical they conjure and fulminate against.

Mickeleh's Take: Memo to McCain Campaign; cc: Andy McCarthy. You can tell me: Do any of you actually believe the crap you are trying to pin on Obama? Or is it—as it looks from the outside—pure, cynical demogoguery? I'm getting the impression that you are derranged enough to swallow your own snake oil.

"That One" "That Girl" & "This Boy"

"That One" is the immortal line from this debate. File it with "There you go again," and "Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy."

In celebration, please enjoy the following vids.

That One (McCain)

That Girl (Marlo Thomas)

This Boy (Beatles)

Mickeleh's Take: At least McCain didn't munge all three of these and call Obama "That boy."

Who Won The Debate? Irrelevant.

Before last night's presidential debate, Obama had a clear lead in both national polls, and state-by-state electoral votes.

In order to change that, McCain would have had to deliver a breakthrough. He didn't. If you favored him, he did well enough for you to tout his victory. But if you didn't, nothing he said or did would have flipped you into his column. Best line of all is from Melissa McEwan:

McCain needed to win; he did not. He got owned. Say goodnight, Johnny. It's President That One to you.

I'll tell you (though you know I'm biased going in) that Obama did better on substance, style, energy, focus, and looking, as Buffy once said, "very commandery." He did himself some good in bringing home some undecideds.

I'll tell you that McCain started strong, but tired out through the debate, puttered aimlessly across the stage, looked grumpy and uncomfortable when Obama spoke, came to life briefly when he gave a navy guy a back pat and a handshake.

I'll tell you that the CNN audience dial-a-smile didn't seem very interested in what McCain had to say.

I don't have to tell you, because you probably read it elsewhere that the insta-polls gave it decisively to Obama.

I won't miss Tom ("Is Russia evil?") Brokaw.

Mickeleh's Take: If you want Obama in the White House, don't let up. We still have four long weeks to go. But smile while you work.

Second Debate: Who is the Real John McCain?

The most striking thing about last night's presidential debate is what we didn't hear. McCain didn't bring up Ayres, Rezko, or Rev. Wright. He didn't tell us that Sen. Obama accuses the U.S. of doing nothing in Afghanistan but bombing innocents. He didn't accuse Obama of wanting to raise taxes on people making $42,000. He didn't say that Obama just showed up "out of nowhere."

The Sen. McCain who debated last night bore no resemblance to the Sen. McCain whose campaign has been throwing nothing but mud and asking, "Who's the real Barack Obama?" The John McCain who came to at Belmont University in Nashville, Tenn comes from an alternate universe.

Except for an eruption of disdain that burst out in when he called his opponent, "that one," this John McCain pretty much stuck to issues while he puttered around the stage. He threw only the mildest of shopworn zingers ("nailing jello to a wall") and a short list of distortions, including the canard that Obama voted 94 times for tax increases. (Using the same dubious methodology that gets Obama to 94, McCain voted 105 times for tax increases since 2005 and nearly 500 times in his Senate career.)

It was a tacit admission that the core of his campaign is not working for anyone but the rabid base. It's a flop with undecideds and an energizer for Democrats. If you watched the CNN dial-o-rama to see how their panel of viewers rated the debate minute-by-minute you could see that anytime McCain went negative, the response flat-lined.

Mickeleh's Take: Who is the real John McCain? The fellow who showed up last night to debate, or the one that approves a steady stream of deceptive smear ads and whose running mate demagogues Obama as a pal of terrorists?

Short Takes

Time for Biden to get up and remind a rally that John McCain is pallin' around with Phil Gramm, an economic terrorist who targets his own country.

Marlon Brando in the Story of John McCain
(Upright Citizens Brigade)

BarbinMD: "At what point do we call the tactics of John McCain and Sarah Palin for what they are? Hate mongering"

Howie Klein: "Unless 'maverick' means a crook or a tired old wreck of a man, McCain is no maverick."

16-yr old girl: "Mom, anyone who has ever seen even one Disney movie can tell that Sarah Palin is the bad guy in this story."

One more right wing lie to set straight: The Palin Rape Kit story has not been debunked.

I used to think this Ira Gershwin lyric was a quaint reminder of a time long gone:

Refrain from "Who Cares?"

Let it rain and thunder,
Let a million firms go under.
I am not concerned with
Stocks and bonds that I've been burned with!

The lyric also includes this couplet that I've enjoyed all my life (because it mentions the town where I grew up). But I've never caught its full impact till now:

Who cares what banks fail in Yonkers
As long as you've got a kiss that conquers.

Here's how to answer someone who tells you they won't vote for Obama because he's a Muslim.

Mickeleh's Take: Here's the upside of the McCain Palin Slime Talk Express: It exposes them as having zero honor. It wouldn't be happening if they didn't know why the rest of us know: they're losing.

Thirty Days, Thirty Reasons to Vote Obama

Lee Stranahan kicks off a month-ong series of videos in support of Barack Obama. First installment: health care.

Mickeleh's Take: Obama wants to end the insurance companies's ability to reject people who have pre-existing conditions. The best way to do that is to reject McCain-Palin on the basis of their pre-existing condition: they're Republicans.

Bruce: Why he Supports Obama

Mickeleh's Take: I've heard many speeches in support of Obama. This is a good as they come. (He sings, too.)

McCain and Palin: Double Standard?

L. John McCain, speaking in Indepedence, MO, Oct. 1
R. Sarah Palin, at the V.P. debate in St. Louis, Missouri, Oct. 3.

Mickeleh's Take: The eyes have it. When McCain does it, they call it a twitch. When Palin does it, they say it's a wink. Somehow that just doesn't seem fair to me.

VP Debate: What did Palin Actually Say?

The lasting impressions of the debate come from the visuals, the demeanor, the smiles, the glares, the poses. We all know that. But before it all fades away, it's worth taking note of what Gov. Palin actually said last night.

Well, for one, Palin said nookyular. There's one culture war I'm happy to sign up for: the Nuclears against the Nookyulars. If you can't pronounce nuclear, you just don't get to be Vice President. Stop trying to rhyme Nookyular with arugula. We've had eight years of nookyular. That's enough.

And then she said this:

"I'm thankful the Constitution would allow a bit more authority given to the vice president if that vice president so chose to exert it in working with the Senate and making sure that we are supportive of the president's policies and making sure too that our president understands what our strengths are. "

WTF? Do we know which Constitution she's referring to? Do we know what her intentions are? And if I may be so bold as to ask, does she?

There was a brief relapse into her Couric-era syntax of loosely connected phrases (includin' some more o' that "head-rearin" she's so fond o' warnin' us about—only this time it wasn't Putin doin' it. It was pesky mortgage lenders)"

...there have been so many changes in the conditions of our economy in just even these past weeks that there has been more and more revelation made aware now to Americans about the corruption and the greed on Wall Street.
We need to look back, even two years ago, and we need to be appreciative of John McCain's call for reform with Fannie Mae, with Freddie Mac, with the mortgage-lenders, too, who were starting to really kind of rear that head of abuse.... It is a crisis. It's a toxic mess, really, on Main Street that's affecting Wall Street.

Throughout the debate she made a string of assertions that ranged from dubious to infuriatingly false:

• that John McCain is "one representing reform" in our financial markets
  
• that he's the one who brought the folks in Congress together
  
• that he suspended his campaign
• that he put politics aside
  
• that he really meant "the American workforce" when he called the fundamentals of our economy strong
  
• that Obama supported raising taxes for families making only $42,000
• that John McCain is "known for" pushing for even harder and tougher regulations
• that John McCain's health care proposal is a good deal for folks.
• that Barack Obama "even opposed funding our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan"
• that our current troop deployment (152,000) is down to pre-surge levels (132,000)
• that Obama's plan for for troop withdrawal is white flag of surrender in Iraq"
• that Obama refused to acknowledge the surge is working
• that "victory is within sight" in Iraq
  
• that Iraq is the central front in the war on terror
• that Obama would meet with enemies "without diplomatic efforts being undertaken first"
• that John McCain knows how to win a war
  

On that last point, I need to ask, what is the evidence that John McCain knows how to win a war? Did he ever win one? Given his academic record (finishing 894th out of 899 students in his class at Annapolis), it surely wasn't book-learning.

Palin declared that she wasn't about to answer any questions that didn't please her, and proceeded instead to deliver a rote recitation of the misleading and discredited talking points that the McCain camp has been peddling all summer. That's treating her audience with the same dirisive contempt that McCain showed to Obama last week.

It wasn't so much a debate as an interrupted monolog. Eugene Robinson put it this way: "the pattern, so far, has been one of Biden presenting facts and Palin countering with… saying stuff."

The New York Times summed up the debate this:

In the end, the debate did not change the essential truth of Ms. Palin’s candidacy: Mr. McCain made a wildly irresponsible choice that shattered the image he created for himself as the honest, seasoned, experienced man of principle and judgment. It was either an act of incredible cynicism or appallingly bad judgment.

Mickeleh's Take: I said yesterday that even a perfect storm of Palin success, Biden failure, and Ifill bias wouldn't change the dynamics of the race. In reality there wasn't a storm of any magnitude whatever. Palin had, at best, a mild recovery. Biden's performance carried the day with independent voters in both the CBS and CNN surveys, and Ifill lived up to her well-earned reputation as a solid pro. On balance, the Dems are now two for two in debates. So the race goes on.

VP Debate: Talk About Your Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations

If you are a Republican you're ecstatic that your candidate actually can talk. You're proud she can duck questions and deride "the filter." You think she was pretty slick to co-opt Obama's change message and slap it onto McCain. And you marveled at her attempt to ward off any examination of your sorry record with a leaden rewrite of a Reagan classic: "Say it ain't so, Joe, there you go again pointin' backwards again." You loved how perky she was, with the beaming smile, the winks, the head tilt and the occasional puzzled nose-scrunching.

If you were grading her on a curve that also includes a tennis ball, an avocado, and that lady who showed up for the Couric interview, you'd have to say she aced it. OK, base, consider yourselves re-energized.

Mickeleh's Take: As for the rest of us, we're still scared shitless about what the Republicans have done to our economy, our national honor, our prestige in the world, and our constitution. We didn't find any substantive answers in Palin's presentation. Instead we found a rote recitation of discredited Republican talking points. We're ready to move on.

The VP Debate. Will it Even Matter?

The most likely outcome of tonight's debate between Gov. Palin and Sen. Biden is this: we get to see Tina Fey again this weekend. 

But will the debate have any impact at all on the race to the White House? Probably not.

People vote the top of the ticket, not the bottom. And at the top of the ticket, the Obama momentum is growing. A CBS-New York Times poll finds Obama's favorable rating at 48%—the highest its been in this poll. By contrast, McCain's mavericky teflon has worn perilously thin; his unfavorable rating now reaching 42%—the highest in the poll's history.

Following a tiny bounce after the Republican Convention, Sen. McCain's national polling has been trending down, while Sen. Obama's is trending up. (shown pollster.com's trend chart of last month's composite poll of polls).

Even more dramatic is the recent movement in electoral votes. In state polling since the Wall St. meltdown and the first presidential debate, Obama seems headed for a solid win in electoral votes. CNN - Time - Opinion Research polling shows Obama ahead among likely voters in Florida (+4), Minnesota (+11), Misouri (+1), Nevada (+4), and Virginia (+9). Obama's lead among registered voters is even wider. (Given all the evidence we've seen of expanded voter interest and participation, the likely-voter forumula probably understates Obama's margin) NBC's Chuck Todd, this morning, called it a "tipping point."

It's Character, not Issues.

The McCain strategy has always been to make the campaign about driving up Obama's negatives to make him appear too risky. Celebrity. Speechmaker. Unready. Unpatriotic. (The underground campaign pushes even further: crypto-Muslim, anti-American, anti-Israel, socialist—a guy whose secret agenda is set by some shady, dangerous friends and influences. Not to mention his wacky peacher—and mention him as often as possible.)

But the last two weeks have reduced that campaign to a Groucho line: "who are you gonna believe—me or your own eyes?"

Our own eyes have given us a close look at "no drama Obama," responding to crisis with measured strength, steady communication, and deft humor. The same crisis showed us a clear view of McCain lurching from one position to another, one stunt to another, one outburst to another.

What's the Best She Can Do?

Against all this, what's the very best outcome Sarah Palin can deliver to her ticket? The bloom is definitely off the rose. Gov. Palin has quickly moved from an argument for McCain's strategic genius, to another example of his impulsively dangerous decision-making. She's in a very deep hole right now. Clearly unprepared for national office. Uninterested in national issues. Unable to name a newspaper. Unaware that supporting a constitutional right of privacy undermines the anti-Roe v. Wade position.



Some pundits are telling us is that the bar is now so low for Palin, that a charm offensive, a few canned zingers, plus some folksy soccer-mommery will make her a winner. Nonsense. She can't charm her way out of the devastating self-portrait she painted under the gentle prodding of Katie Couric. No way. Laughing stock today. Laughing stock tonight. Laughing stock tomorrow.

Some pundits are telling us that verbose and gaffe-prone Biden will say something dumb and talk too much. Who cares? He's immune. That's who he is. That's who he was. That's who he will be. Everyone already knows that. But he's also solid, informed, and active in both international and domestic issues and in tune with the Chris Matthews "regular American" voter. That won't change either.

Mickeleh's Take: Let say there's a perfect storm tonight. They let Palin be Palin and she's the best Palin she can possibly be. Joe Biden is at his worst. And Gwen Ifill is discredited as pro-Obama. Does anyone expect significant votes to shift toward the erratic, impulsive, resentful, disdainful, and less-than-honest McCain-Palin ticket? I don't. All their base is belong to them. The rest of us are voting for change.

The Perfect Palin Metaphor: She's a Post Turtle

Just got this email from a local Obama supporter. It pretty well sums it up.

While suturing a cut on the hand of a 75-year old Texas rancher who was injured while working cattle, the doctor struck up a conversation with the old man. Eventually the topic got around to Sarah Palin and her bid to be a heartbeat away from being President.

The old rancher said, "Well, ya know, Palin is a post turtle."
Not being familiar with the term, the doctor asked him what a post turtle was.

The old rancher said, "When you're driving down a country road and you come across a fence post with a turtle balanced on top, that's a post turtle."
The old rancher saw a puzzled look on the doctor's face, so he continued to explain.

"You know she didn't get up there by herself, she doesn't belong up there, she doesn't know what to do while she is up there, and you just wonder what kind of dumb ass put her up there to begin with."

Have a great day and see you at the polls on November 4th.

Mickeleh's Take: Pass it on.

"We Have Some Results For You"

Mickeleh's Take: Brilliant. Daisy-girl, I think you're in second place now.

Spin Surrogates: Biden kills, Palin is MIA

Presidential debates are the only sporting event where the post-game show counts for more than the game. It's the coverage that reminds people what they need to remember. Obama sent his V.P. Biden was on fire.

Sen. Joe Biden Surrogate and Spinmeister Extraordinaire.

In the debate last night McCain praised his V.P. "I'm happy to say that I've got a partner that's a good maverick along with me now." But said V.P. was not available for spin duty. (Maybe she was on Letterman last night.)

Gov. Sarah Palin. Nowhere to be seen last night.

Mickeleh's Take: It's not that Palin wasn't up to the job. It's just that those master showmen in the McCain camp are trying to build suspense for the Vice Presidential Debate next week.

The Debate: Pictures trump Words.

As the Fonz used to say, "I was wr-wr-wr-wr..." 

I was mildly disappointed by Sen. Obama's performance in the debate last night. Yes, Obama landed a few: mocking McCain for his "bomb Iran" ditty; unleashing a flurry of "You were wrong about..." jabs on Iraq; tying McCain to Bush.

But I was looking to him for more harder hits against Sen. McCain and fewer "John is absolutely right" interjections. I worried that McCain's theme line of "You just don't understand..." would resonate with the viewers. Whle I thought that Obama carried the early rounds, McCain came on stronger and stronger as the debate wore on.

In affect, it looked to me like the smart guy vs. the strong guy. And I feared the public would opt for the strong guy.

But then I saw this tweet fly by on Twitter's mesmerizing new election site

knowalott ... he didn't look obama in the eye. not once. he wouldn't look him in the eye, and as a southern boy, I can't accept that.

Hmm... I remembered what my college chum, Jeffrey Bell, once told me about the Nixon-Kennedy debates. Jeff had been attending school in Switzerland. In 1960 their only access to the debates was by radio. He said everyone at his school was sure that Nixon had won. They were astonished to read in the news that for TV viewers, Kennedy had won. Pictures trumped words.

Debate Clip circulated by Democrats

What did last night's pictures show?

At one podium: an old man, showing contempt and disrespect by not deigning to look at his rival. An old man whose troweled-on pasty-white makeup and botox combined to make him less lifelike than a Disneyland audioanimatronic robot. An old man whose fixed smile conveyed intense disdain. An old man who responded to his opponent with a dismissive chuckle. Chris Matthews boiled it down to "troll-like" and "grouchy."

At the other podium: a young man, poised, informed, centered, calm, courteous, and focused.


Early polling and focus groups say Obama won.
CBS/Knowledge Networks polled 500 uncommitted voters. 39% Obama, 24% McCain, 37% tie.
CNN/Opinion Research Corp polled 524 adult Americans who watched the debate: 51% Obama, 38% McCain.
Focus groups conducted by Frank Luntz (Republican) and Stan Greenberg (Democrat) also gave the nod to Obama.

Mickeleh's Take: Gore lost his first debate when the only things people could remember were his eye-rolling and the heavy sighs. This year, the lasting impression will be McCain's contempuous affect. Wanna bet that tonight's SNL sketch cements the McCain affect as in our memories.

Groucho on Palin

Watching Part II of the Palin Couric interview, one of Groucho's lines from "Duck Soup" popped into my head:

"Gentlemen, Chicolini here may talk like an idiot, and look like an idiot, but don't let that fool you, he really is an idiot."

Mickeleh's Take: Quick John, do another one of your batshit crazy stunts and maybe people will stop talking about your idiot trophy running mate for a sec. I know, go to Washington and scuttle the bailout. And, um, tell everyone you're just too righteous to debate while you're at it.

In case you missed it, here's Pt II of Palin-Couric

Olbermann: Never Lie to Letterman

Joe Scarborough, this morning, in one of those moments that have habituated me to watch his show barefoot, lest I destroy my TV by hurling a shoe through the screen, excoriated Letterman for daring to spice up his McCain rant by including a feed from the Katie Couric interview with John McCain. Neither Joe nor anyone on his panel (not even Mika) bothered to mention what had set Dave off and motivated him to show the feed: Sen. McCain and his campaign had not only canceled at the last minute, but had also blatantly lied to Letterman. He wasn't rushing off to the airport at all. But heading to another CBS studio for an interview with Couric.

In case you haven't seen it yet, I've included a clip from last night's Letterman show in a previous post.

Tonight, Keith Olbermann set the record straight. (He was not only a witness, but a participant, having jumped in as a last minute replacement for the mendacious senator.)

Letterman would probably have been a tougher interviewer than Katie. Except that McCain chose to duck Letterman, perhaps as a warm-up for ducking tomorrow's debate. If McCain does chicken out of facing Obama, I trust he'll be clobbered for it at least as hard as the clobbering Letterman gave him last night.

The moral Keith drew: Never lie to David Letterman.

Mickeleh's Take: Never wake up to Joe Scarborough.

McCain's Willful Suspension of Credibility

The great talent of the McCain campaign is throwing stunts to dominate the news cycle whenever Obama is gaining momentum. They write the songs that make the whole world sing. But stunt-based hits chart only briefly. And with each shot the public and press build resistance.

Where the Palin bubble lasted more than two weeks, yesterday's dramatic announcement that Sen. McCain would suspend his campaign drew raucus skepticism within minutes. Suddenly the McCain campaign wanted to suspend the first presidential debate... and possibly reschedule it by canceling the vice presidential debate. How convenient.

McCain's stunt succeeded in overshadowing news coverage of a devastating critique of his foreign policy by Sen. Biden. Watch this and you'll understand why McCain has every reason to duck an open debate on foreign policy and national security.


The day did not end well for John McCain. While the public may be used to McCain's lying, David Letterman was mighty pissed when McCain lied to him personally. Letterman has a big megaphone for expressing his annoyance.

For a more complete and coherent rundown of McCain's day, see Arutisha.

Mickeleh's Take: By his series of reckless stunts, McCain may gain ink and airtime, but he is also demonstrating how willing he is to ditch his credibility as a reliable leader in times of crises. By asking for an extension on the first debate he is turning tail rather than showing us a profile in courage.

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Casting Idea for Gov. Palin.

How about if we just put Gov. Sarah Palin into a road company of "Annie Get Your Gun" and be done with her? Also starring Todd (First Dude) Palin as Frank Butler, Sen. John McCain as Buffalo Bill.

Mickeleh's Take: In a minor rewrite, we could give one of Frank Butler's songs to special guest star Levi Johnson: "The Girl that I Marry."